Railway Budget : A move in political sagacity ?
Pravu's railway budget for 2016-17 looks, at a glance, as a cautious approach without making any high-sounding announcements of big projects most of which, going by past records, do not see light of the day. There are no flamboyant proposals like announcement of new trains or opening of new factories under the ministry. And he had announced a slew of measures for the benefit of the common passengers like extending of e-ticketing facilities, introduction of bio-toilets and a host of others keeping in view the passenger amenities and need for future developments.
On paper, this is indeed a very sound proposal. But the performances of the past year on the revenue front puts some question mark over the target envisaged in the budget. There is already a shortfall in the current railway budget and the support from the general budget will be to the tune of Rs. 40000 crore only. In the current fiscal, realisation both from the passenger and freight fell short of the target and the expected growth in these two sectors have been pegged at 12.4% and 10.7% respectively. The net realisation in revenue in the current fiscal is Rs. 1.78 lakh crore against a target of Rs. 1.83 lakh crore.
The higher projection in revenue is made with the expectation of higher earnings in freight due to growth in economic activities and also in increased passenger traffic. This seems to be too ambitious considering the continuous negative trend in passenger traffic and drop in core sector demand adversely affecting the freight traffic. Some are of the opinion that the freight traffic will get a boost due to a rise in G.D.P. But it is a fact that the freight traffic is related with the growth in manufacturing and mining industries both of which are in a languishing stage at present. As the bulk of our G.D.P. is in the service sector, the impact on the freight traffic may not touch the level as expected in the budget.
All these factors put a very pertinent question. What are the expected sources for financing such ambitious passenger amenities ? Out of the targeted capital expenditure of Rs. 1.21 lakh crore, only 40000 crore is expected as part of the gross budgetary support and 20000 crore from market borrowings. The government is looking for support from the Japanese government and also hinted at inviting the state governments for making joint ventures with them for certain projects like wagon manufacturing or laying of new broad-gauge tracks. But the quantum of help from such sources are not certain.
This again raises a doubt whether the sense of euphoria is only short-lived. Has the fare-rise had simply been kept in abeyance ? Is this sugar-coated pill is only aimed at assuaging the public sentiments on the eve of elections in five major states? And a mid-term jump in fares are imminent as soon as the heat of elections are over ? That the passenger fare and freight charges are kept unchanged are just a misnomer as fares can be increased even post-budget period as had been done barely some months ago by the same government. |
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